For any AFL team that considers itself wildcard round material, Collingwood is the doorman. They’ll show the sides in footy’s middle classes exactly where they stand, where their soft spots are, and how far they have to go. For the best part of a decade and a half, Collingwood has been checking Carlton’s credentials and knocking them back. The Pies have beaten them 14 of the last 16 times they’ve met. Nine of those have come under Craig McRae. They’ve included spiflications, capitulations and abominations. They’ve included wayward shots after the siren and last-minute daggers to the heart. In almost every instance, the Blues have shot themselves in the foot to some degree. In almost every instance, Collingwood have forced them to line up for hours, denied them entry, and reminded them they’re not yet ready.

For a few weeks under Josh Fraser, Carlton looked capable of snaring a spot in the AFL’s latest construct. But they’ve met their match against the two clubs that have given them the most grief in recent years – first in the teeming rain against Hawthorn and then on Saturday against Collingwood, where they were defeated 14.6(90) to 10.9(69). Under Fraser, they’ve shed that sense of doom that hung over the club. But they needed this win more than any other under the new coach. And they weren’t quite up to it.

Collingwood remains a team with a lot of limitations. But they have the same aces they’ve had for the entirety of McRae’s tenure – a supporter base that continues to turn out in droves, a second coach on the field in Scott Pendlebury, a generational midfielder in Nick Daicos and a team that brings an abnormal and almost alarming level of pressure.

Indeed, a recurring sight all evening was of a Blues player in space and seemingly poised to break open the game, only to be devoured by a Magpie. They did it up front and they did it down back. They did it as individuals and they did it as a flock. Whichever way they did it, they gave Carlton no room to breathe all night. By the final quarter, when the game was still there to be won for the Blues, they were second-guessing themselves, spoiling the ball straight into the Magpie players’ laps and giving away silly free kicks and 50-metre penalties.

Collingwood’s defensive intent was personified by Billy Frampton, surely one of the most improved footballers in the game, whose closing speed and ability to read the ball off the boot has improved out of sight in the last 18 months. He was in the reserves to start 2025, but was probably their most reliable key defender by the end of the season. And he has taken his game to a new level this year, filling the hole left by Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe on the weekend.

Daicos spoke this week of still being a genuine premiership contender, but even if they had a couple more AI versions of him, they still wouldn’t be that team. They have a tough run ahead too, with Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn and Brisbane to come. They’re as honest as the day is long, however, and if any one of those four sides are even slightly off their game, Collingwood will get hold of them.

When the Pies were properly up and running in 2022, 2023 and early last year, it was a dance, a Balanchine collaboration. Everything is more laboured now. Every goal is more hard-fought and painstakingly constructed. McRae often speaks about luck, and they certainly rode their luck in his first two years. But they haven’t caught the same breaks this year, having played nine games decided by 10 points or fewer, losing four and drawing one of them. They were certainly fortunate that Cooper Trembath didn’t stick his mark in the last second of the North Melbourne game last week. But they make their own luck too. They’re a disciplined, efficient and well organised team, three areas where Carlton were lacking. And few teams, with the possible exception of Adelaide, bring such reliable, relentless and unconditional pressure.

Carlton had made significant strides under Fraser. And they had some rotten luck on the weekend, being down two rotations and bereft of ruck options. But Collingwood remains the obstacle. Collingwood’s the team that’s still in their heads, the team that stops them in their tracks every year. The Blues continue to try new things, to take risks, and to blood new talent. But they won’t be a serious team until they can work Collingwood’s locks.