Fremantle were tracking towards their first grand final since 2013 – and just their second in history – as they claimed a club record 19 wins across the home-and-away campaign. But the Dockers hardly fired a shot in their qualifying final defeat to the Hawks and must now take a longer route to reach a first preliminary final since 2015 – let alone to secure a breakthrough premiership in their 32nd AFL season.
The Dockers’ home-and-away success crucially earned them a double chance but also leaves them as the side to win the most games and then lose a qualifying final. Justin Longmuir’s team will be out to avoid another slice of unwanted history as they are now on the brink of joining last year’s Crows as the only minor premiers since 1983 to be eliminated in straight sets.
Standing in Fremantle’s way are the finals-hardened Geelong who have already played in 10 prelims since Chris Scott took the reins for their 2011 premiership season. The perennial contenders are aiming to return to a fifth grand final under their coach and to gain a hint of redemption for last year’s humiliation on the final day of the season. With their wealth of experience, the Cats are back on familiar ground in a do-or-die clash, while the Dockers are still to prove they can handle the finals heat after dropping their first home game of the season just when it counts most.
Where the game will be won – and lost
Fremantle flirted with their form after sealing a top-two finish and a pair of home finals. But with three defeats in their past four matches, the Dockers have no margin for error remaining as they aim to make the most of a home-and-away campaign that shattered club records. The minor premiers looked weighed down by expectation as they reverted to a more cautious approach while the Hawks brought intense pressure more suited to the occasion of a qualifying final.
The slow ball movement that held the Dockers back in recent years returned against the Hawks and made it difficult to capitalise on their 57 inside 50s as they finished with only five goals. After scoring only 17 points from turnover against the Hawks, Longmuir’s side will have to punish the Cats’ mistakes more to progress to the preliminary final. The Dockers also need to bounce from the back half better after the rebound that served them so well during the home-and-away season – when they ranked fifth for scoring and piled on 100 points or more in 14 of their 23 matches – dried up in their first final in front of home fans.
Geelong have quietly become the form side of the competition as they have won seven straight matches by an average of 35 points. The Cats now have almost a free hit with a semi-final on the road, though they should hold no fears of playing at Optus Stadium after pushing the Dockers all the way even while missing the likes of Bailey Smith and Tom Stewart for their clash at the venue in round 15. The more senior players in Scott’s side can also call on the experience of a pair of finals at the venue in 2021, when the Cats beat the Giants in a semi-final before losing to the Demons the next week.
The Cats have got the balance between defence and attack right across their unbeaten run home and into the elimination final win against the Blues, with six scores of 100 points or more in the seven victories while conceding triple figures only once. Even with fitness clouds hovering over key players Max Holmes and Jeremy Cameron, Scott has found new solutions to refresh the midfield and forward half. Gryan Miers has rediscovered his touch even while managing a serious knee issue and Shaun Mannagh has been a valuable addition to the engine room, as sharpshooter Shannon Neale and the emerging Jay Polkinghorne cover for Cameron closer to goal.
Game-changers
Luke Jackson: It is no coincidence that Fremantle made their move up the ladder at the same time as the versatile Jackson cemented his place as their first-choice ruck. The 199cm Docker remains dangerous when he pushes forward to join Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss as marking targets but now has his maximum impact when spending more time around the ball. The first-time All Australian has booted a career-high 25 goals at the same time as putting together personal bests for 18.5 disposals, 4.9 clearances and 25.3 hitouts a game. With the Cats putting their faith in emerging ruck Mitch Edwards, Jackson might only need to hit those same numbers to have a huge bearing on the result but seems destined to have a much bigger say.
Patrick Dangerfield: The Geelong captain delivered another virtuoso finals display to lead his side to victory over the red-hot Blues. Dangerfield again showed – just as he did in a preliminary final last year – that he can rise to the occasion when needed, as he booted five goals with 10 score involvements and 21 disposals in a best-on-ground elimination final performance. The concern for the Cats is whether their inspirational skipper can back it up against the Dockers, and it will surely remain fresh in Scott’s mind that the now 36-year-old had little impact in the 2025 grand final just a week after his heroics in the clash with the Hawks. The Cats and Dangerfield have got better at managing his body through a season, and he was quickly pulled from the action once the win was sewn up last week, as they look to ensure they can call on his big-game experience at just the right time.
Early prediction
Fremantle lost their way over the past four weeks but showed enough over the previous five months to suggest they are too good to be eliminated in straight sets, even when facing the modern-day masters of the high-stakes clash in Geelong.
