Have Manly the energy to do it all again?
For teams that finished in second and third place on the ladder neither Manly nor Souths go into their finals clash with a jaunty gait. Manly, in particular, look tired, even world weary, like an old bloke who’s been doing the same job for as long as he can recall, who’s been eating the same food, watching the same shows on the box, having the same conversations with the same people, and slipping into the same polyester slacks, the ones with the blackbean sauce stain on the upper thigh (a result of some exuberance during 2008 premiership celebrations at the Chinese near Warringah Mall). It’s all worked for him so far – spectacularly so at times, he’ll admit – but by God he’s not sure he can do it anymore. Sure, he can still rouse himself when the moment takes him – didn’t he climb out of the grave just two weeks ago to beat those sprightly Panthers? – but why should he? What’s he got left to prove?
Manly’s opponents, Souths, meantime, should have more zip than they’ve recently shown. Especially since they have a 43-year premiership drought to break and a team capable of doing it. But their form has fluctuated, and last week they were comprehensively beaten by the Roosters, only playing with freedom when the jig was up. Losing preliminary finalists in 2012 and 2013, Souths have a mental hurdle to overcome, and it won’t help them knowing star forward Sam Burgess if off to rugby next year – that compounds any pressure they may be feeling to win a premiership before their squad inevitably breaks apart. The good news for Souths is that Matt Ballin is still out for Manly while Adam Reynolds is back in the Bunnies’ No7 jersey this week. For someone who was on the outer earlier this year Reynolds now looks indispensable and Bunnies fans will be hoping he and five-eighth Luke Keary will provide the key to unlocking Manly’s defence and testing their will for yet another fight. If they do fire – or at least match their counterparts, Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran – then Souths should have enough, though you’d be more confident of saying that if Greg Inglis wasn’t carrying a hip injury that has blunted his pace and effectiveness.
The Roosters won’t have it all their own way
All season long it has felt like any one of five or six teams could win this season’s premiership and that’s still the case. But recent weeks have seen the Sydney Roosters pin the ears back, surge through the pack, and claim the mantle of premiership favouritism that previously no team had seemed willing to grasp. Their forwards have found their sting, their speedy backs have exploited the space, halves Mitchell Pearce and James Maloney are on song, and the team’s defensive structures and attitude have approached the levels of last season when the Roosters were like some cartoon schoolyard bully laying a big meaty paw on the head of their opponents as they swung wildly at thin air, wearing themselves out.
Given their recent run of form, and the fact they are the reigning premiers and, as such, are familiar with the particular intensity of finals football, the Roosters are heavy favourites this week to knock over the defiant Panthers who must surely have picked up the proxy support of NRL fans whose teams are still suffering the ill effects of Mad Monday. Steered around by Jamie Soward – who, prior to the season, went down to the river where he was promptly dunked and reborn – the Panthers are tomorrow’s team who have arrived a little early. As such it almost feels like everything they gain now – not least finals experience – is a bonus. But it would be wrong to write them off, just as it has proven all season long. As well as their stars on the make (like Matt Moylan, James Segeyaro and Josh Mansour), their stars on the remake (Soward and Jamal Idris), and those like the redoubtable Nigel Plum, the Panthers are as much a team, in the best sense of the word, as any in the competition. They know their roles and they know that if they fulfil them they have every chance.
Extra features: This game will be coming to you live via the Guardian minute-by-minute blog, starting roughly 45 minutes before kick-off.
A rollicking Queensland derby
North Queensland’s emphatic victory over Manly last week wasn’t enough to push them into fourth but, with Johnathan Thurston at his puckish best, and the Cowboys’ forwards rolling, rolling, rolling, rawhide, it showed they have they firepower to become the first team in the NRL era (1998-) to win a premiership from outside the top four. The win also boosted the Cowboys’ record against the other finalists to seven (wins) and three (losses), the best head-to-head record among the eight teams left standing (the Broncos are the worst, with four wins from 12). That’s got to give them some confidence, as will their ability to win away from home this year, previously their fatal flaw.
While Cowboys fans may be worried about recent history when dubious (or is diabolical a better word?) refereeing decisions have cost their team dearly in the past two finals campaigns, you’d think Paul Green and his team will be too focused on the Broncos to waste energy on a past they can’t change. The Broncos appear the least capable of the finalists, as their eighth-place finish would suggest, but they play a free-flowing brand of football that might stand a better chance of upsetting a team with a similar tactical outlook, like the Cowboys, than a team whose objective is to win on the back of their defence. The Broncos will also be charged by a willingness to see off Anthony Griffin in style, and in Justin Hodges, Sam Thaiday, Corey Parker and Matt Gillett they have players who know how to win big games. The Cowboys, at home (where they are on a 10-game winning streak), are clear favourites but the Broncos could give their Queensland mates a scare.
Can the Bulldogs turn things around?
Canterbury’s great early season form slipped away around the time of Origin and, like an ethical politician, it’s only been seen sporadically since. Origin has derailed better teams than the Bulldogs but there was a feeling that leading the Blues to victory would give Trent Hodkinson and Josh Reynolds the confidence to carry their team deep into the finals. This may happen yet but there are few signs that the Bulldogs are about to spark into life (even now that Reynolds is finding his feet again after the interruptions of suspension and injury). They enter the finals on the back of two wins in their past nine, and two losses in their past two, last week’s (a 19-18 loss to the Titans after leading 18-0) so demoralising that Des Hasler felt obliged to apologise to fans. And now they face a daunting trip to Melbourne to take on a Storm team that, while not as forbidding as past Melbourne teams, still has a winning ethic as well as three of the most influential players in the game, Messrs Smith, Slater and Cronk. It’s the Storm’s defence that has proven to be their weak point this year but against the Bulldogs, whose backline will get you from A to B but without ruffling your hair, that will likely be a worry for next week not this. A lot may hinge on the fitness of Cameron Smith, who is battling an ankle injury, but should he play (and you know he will), the odds are very much in the Storm’s favour.
What kind of ‘home final’ will Manly enjoy?
You’d think that if Brookvale Oval is good enough for the home and away season it would be good enough for finals but the NRL’s desire for spacious, comfortable venues for finals football sees Manly forced to leave their renovator’s dream and instead play their home final at the Sydney Football Stadium, a venue more or less in their opponent, South Sydney’s, heartland. What will Manly fans do as a result of this scheduling which robs them of the genuine advantage they’d get if Souths were obliged to play in Brookie? Disgruntled that their team has been deprived of their rightful benefit will they stay away on Saturday night (bearing in mind that’s their way, finals or not, what with their long-standing reluctance to traverse Middle Harbour) or will they put themselves out for a night and deal with the travel and the late night journey home in order to benefit their team when they need them?
