No sport has changed as fundamentally in the past 20 years as rugby union. Looking back at the footage of the first World Cup in 1987 is like switching off your iPod and blowing the dust off a stack of old vinyl 78s. The matchstick men, the flimsy defence, the amateur ethos - all long gone, replaced by 30 professional powerlifters with Popeye biceps and rhinoceros thighs. The stakes are proportionately higher and the pressure, in every sense, has never been greater. That may explain why fear is the common denominator for players, coaches and administrators on the eve of the 2007 World Cup.
Take Portugal, the latest nation to join the big boys. In Lyon on September 15 they play New Zealand, the tournament favourites. Their personable young coach, Tomaz Morais, does not sound overly optimistic: "Our problem in Portugal is that we don't like scrummaging . . . it hurts and our people do not enjoy it." If the All Blacks do not go easy on such diffident men of war we could witness a truly horrific spectacle, even more damaging to the sport's worldwide image than the depressing mismatches at this year's cricket World Cup.
"Why are amateur teams playing in the World Cup in the professional era?" asks the former Wallaby wing David Campese. Sadly for the romantics, he has a point.
New Zealanders, of course, are crossing their fingers for contrasting reasons. It has become a global joke that their team have not won the tournament since 1987, peaking between World Cups with Swiss-watch reliability. They are not alone in their disquiet. England, the defending champions, have fallen so far in the intervening years that the unthinkable - failing to make the knock-out stages - is not impossible. Wales are wobbling and Ireland have looked distinctly vin ordinaire since switching to their new bottle-green strip. The USA and Namibia will settle happily for damage limitation as will the Portuguese, who lost to London Welsh in a recent warm-up fixture.
As for the tournament organisers, there is a realisation that successful World Cups are not just about stock-piling huge profits. The unspoken dread within the International Rugby Board is that rugby will soon become too muscle-bound for its long-term good, and new laws are currently being tested in Australia in an attempt to create a faster and more open game. When France played England in Marseille recently there were no clean line-breaks on either side in 80 minutes. Imagine a game of football with no shots on goal save a couple of direct free-kicks and you pretty much get the idea. Top-level defences are so clam-tight that only exceptionally skilful players or the most artful coaches are plotting a way through. The fine line between pulsating battle and grim stalemate, as we may shortly discover, has never been so blurred. Union purists are no longer so dismissive about league's "sixth-tackle" law which requires teams to cede possession after half-a-dozen forward rumbles.
There are other niggling worries. France are hosting the tournament but six games, for reasons of political horse-trading, are being staged in Scotland and Wales, diluting the whole event's impact. Imagine the reaction in France if Les Bleus were to bow out of the tournament against the All Blacks in alien Cardiff. Second-string sides are also threatening to scar the landscape; Scotland, for example, may consider it prudent to field a second team against the All Blacks to keep their men fresh for the all-important game against Italy six days later. Ticket prices are obscenely high for the knock-out matches and referees, as ever, will wield a disproportionate influence.
And yet. A Rugby World Cup in France is an intoxicating mix, a beautiful woman in a couture gown astride a speeding motorcycle. Every ingredient is there: passion, intensity, intrigue, danger, even art if you take into account the stylish black and white promotional photos of former greats such as Jean-Pierre Rives throwing balls around with local kids as part of a campaign to spread rugby's all-inclusive ethos. There may not be a more atmospheric place in Europe to watch sport than the Stade Velodrome in Marseille, where two quarter-finals will be played. The winning team, as numerous coaches have been queuing up to say, will be the one which stays calmest amid the screeching tumult.
The 2007 champions must also show the following qualities: counter-attacking verve and the ability to retain discipline in defence, composure in attack and a steady supply of quick possession rather than the endless slow ball which makes so many sides look pedestrian elsewhere. Drop-goals will again be vital and the most important man in the competition is the open-side flanker Richie McCaw, without whom New Zealand's supply lines would be fatally severed. World Cups are never won by accident and the All Blacks, South Africa and France have been hell-bent on atonement ever since England and Australia put their noses out of joint in 2003. The Wallabies, with potentially the best midfield combination in the competition in Stirling Mortlock and Matt Giteau, are a hard side to write off but it seems more likely the winners will be wearing black, blue or green.
New Zealand, if you like, are in the position of a Roger Federer or a Tiger Woods. If they play to their potential, Graham Henry's team will win. South Africa are Andy Roddick or Ernie Els, hard-hitting men with more than a puncher's chance. To English eyes, their coach, Jake White, and his new sidekick, Eddie Jones, could become the Dick Dastardly and Mutley of our times. France, as hosts, resemble Sergio Garcia or Rafael Nadal, with maturing talents and rising self-belief. Ireland need Brian O'Driscoll fit to do serious damage in the knock-out stages; Scotland must first beat Italy in Pool C before looking any further ahead.
And England? Think Tim Henman or Nick Faldo. Many of the squad's best days are behind them and pride is the predominant spur. Victory over Samoa would assure Brian Ashton's team a place in the last eight and, if by some happy chance their quarter-final opponents turn out to be Wales, they could even make the last four. But, crucially, they do not have the game-breaker now compulsory for success at the highest level. If South Africa do win the World Cup - and I have a strange feeling they might - the wonderful Bryan Habana will be one of the major reasons.
Among the other backs worth paying to see will be Juan Hernandez, Felipe Contepomi, David Lemi, Rory Lamont, James Hook and Frédéric Michalak, not to mention the ageless Brian Lima, who lines up for his fifth World Cup. The anticipation is hard to ignore but so is a sense of apprehension.
