The Socceroos knocked on their ceiling at the last World Cup when reaching the round of 16 for the second time in their history. Four years later, and with an exciting new crop of talents emerging, there is reason to dream that Australia can match that – and perhaps even go further.
Since taking the reins little more than 18 months ago, coach Tony Popovic has helped the Socceroos chart a new course. Most crucially, the veteran of the celebrated 2006 World Cup squad has set out to build a belief that the time is now for Australia to “go very far” at a global tournament. We gaze into a crystal ball to predict the routes the Socceroos could take to meet those great expectations.
What do Australia need to do in Group D?
A group that includes Turkey, Paraguay and co-hosts USA is arguably the tournament’s most difficult. But with an expanded format for this World Cup, and eight of the 12 third-placed teams progressing to the last 32, the nerve-jangling jeopardy of each group stage match has been watered down. Tournaments that have used a similar format suggest taking three points from as many group matches could secure progress, while four points or more will be enough to reach the knockout stages.
The Socceroos can expect a baptism of fire in their World Cup opener against Turkey as their opponents return to the global stage for the first time since a third-place finish 24 years ago. A showdown with the USA comes next when the Socceroos can make the most of being drawn alongside one of the co-hosts rather than a Pot 1 powerhouse like France, Spain or defending champions Argentina. The clash with Paraguay, the lowest-ranked side in the group, already looms as “must-win” for Popovic’s side to head into the round of 32 from a strong position – and ideally march into the knockouts as the top team in Group D.
First in Group D: an easier path to the final?
Round of 32
Let us imagine the Socceroos have topped their group and are off to San Francisco to take on a third-place finisher from Group B, E, F, I or J. That could mean a clash with familiar foes Japan or four-time winners Germany, along with 18 other possibilities. Fifa’s official 2026 World Cup regulations lists all the possible pathways for third-place qualifiers, and points to Group B providing the matchup for the Group D winners in 329 of the 425 scenarios. The third-place finishers in Group J (64) and Group I (52) are the next most likely opponents.
Switzerland are the top-ranked side in Group B at No 19 with co-host Canada not far behind. But Qatar, or to a lesser extent Bosnia and Herzegovina, are the more appealing match-up for the group-topping Socceroos.
Round of 16
The Socceroos’ reward for winning their first ever knockout game could be a clash with likely Group G winners Belgium, assuming the perennial dark horses beat a third-place finisher from Group A, E, H, I or J. The scenarios point to that third-placed side coming from Group A which includes Mexico, South Africa, Czechia and the Socceroos’ old rivals South Korea.
Quarter-final
The road gets even harder from here with the second-place finishers in groups K and L, or the Group H winner and Group J runner-up waiting in Los Angeles. Spain are the most daunting prospect in Group H, while Group K’s combination of Portugal and Colombia, and Group L’s England and Croatia, also hang over this stage.
Semi-final
In the semis, the Socceroos would have nothing to lose against another football heavyweight with the Netherlands, Germany or world No 1 France potentially standing in the way in Dallas.
Final
We’re firmly in dreamland now with the Socceroos beyond punching above their weight and Australian fans left scrambling for last minute flights to reach New Jersey in time for the World Cup final.
Second in Group D: a blessing in disguise?
Round of 32
As group stage runners-up, the Socceroos would set up a clash with the second-place finisher in Group G in Dallas. With Belgium the standout and New Zealand expected to be off the pace, it could be left to Egypt to edge a tight tussle with Iran to claim second spot in the group.
Round of 16
Argentina could be waiting at the same stage as they were four years ago, if the reigning champions can top Group J then brush aside the Group H runners-up coming from Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia or Cape Verde.
Quarter-final
A unlikely win over Argentina would open the door to a friendlier last-eight match-up – on paper at least – than they would face if they topped Group D. Group B winners – likely Switzerland or Canada – or Group K winners Portugal or Colombia – are in the mix here.
Semi-final
In the last four, group winners Brazil, Mexico or traditional rivals England could await the Socceroos in Atlanta.
Final
An unforgettable victory would have the Socceroos on their way to MetLife Stadium for the World Cup final.
Third in Group D: can the Socceroos survive?
Round of 32
It would be safer to predict the Socceroos being among the beneficiaries of the first 48-team World Cup as one of the eight lucky third-place finishers. But they would pay a huge price for an underwhelming group stage campaign, with the winners of Group E (perhaps Germany), Group I (likely France), or Group K (Portugal or Colombia) now blocking their path. The scenarios have the Group E winners as the Socceroos’ most likely opponent – in 212 of 495 possibilities – in Boston. The Group I winners are next on 99 scenarios and no more ideal.
Round of 16
Assuming they play the winners of Group E, and win, the Socceroos would likely earn a clash with France in Philadelphia.
Quarter-final
Another group-stage winner in the Netherlands loom as quarter-final opponents in Boston, but the Socceroos would just as gladly take a shot at a second-place finisher from groups A, B or C such as Mexico, Canada or Morocco.
Semi-final
Potential Group H winners Spain, Group G winners Belgium, or even a rematch with a Group D-topping USA would be next in Dallas.
Final
From scraping through the group stage to steamrolling their way through the knockouts, the Socceroos will hold no fears of what comes next in their first World Cup final.
